無驚圖(可入)

 

國指
9364-7498 = 1866 (24.8%) 1浪
10209-8175 = 2034 (24.8%) 3浪
10698-9117 = 1581 (17.3%) 5浪

 

恆指
21654-18278 = 3376 (18.4%) 1浪
24364-19594 = 4770 (24.3%) 3浪
24717-21488 = 3229 (15.0%) 5浪


-國指完成5浪跡象較恆指明顯, 理應不會破3月高位10698

 

-恆指破3浪頂後, 幅度只有353點(1.4%)(截至27/4), 從形態表現看, 落後於國指(4.8%)

 

-恆指5浪幅度應少於4770點(即5浪頂應低於21488+4770=26258, 理論上不應預期有3浪相若的幅度)

 

-若後市恆指持續跑贏國指, 但國指走勢不破3月高位10698, 則應小心走勢為恆指只是追回5浪落後的幅度

 

 

關於Elliott Wave (轉自wiki)

 

Wave 5: Wave five is the final leg in the direction of the dominant trend. The news is almost universally positive and everyone is bullish. Unfortunately, this is when many average investors finally buy in, right before the top. Volume is often lower in wave five than in wave three, and many momentum indicators start to show divergences (prices reach a new high but the indicators do not reach a new peak). At the end of a major bull market, bears may very well be ridiculed (recall how forecasts for a top in the stock market during 2000 were received).

 

Wave A: Corrections are typically harder to identify than impulse moves. In wave A of a bear market, the fundamental news is usually still positive. Most analysts see the drop as a correction in a still-active bull market. Some technical indicators that accompany wave A include increased volume, rising implied volatility in the options markets and possibly a turn higher in open interest in related futures markets.

 

9/5 更新

恆指收24889, 再破前高, 跡象顯示恆指仍然在尋找5浪頂.

 

國指收10128, 假設國指5浪已完成 (頂10698), 國指目前只是處於上落市(Sideways)

 

如果用國指5浪表現推算恆指5浪頂部:

 

國指4浪幅度 1.382 = 10626, 1.500 = 10755, 即5浪頂約為1.382-1.500 之間 (1.448)

 

恆指4浪幅度 1.236 = 25042, 1.382 = 25462, 1.500 = 25802



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2017-05-04 11:37:03
沈青
thank you for sharing